Pension raise: January 2027 calculation for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees based on six-month inflation
Short answer
The January 2027 raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will follow the July-December six-month CPI; the first three months total 5.57 percent. Expectations put the six-month rate between 10.08 and 10.13 percent; the final rate depends on the December data.
Checklist
- Track dataFollow TÜİK's October, November and December CPI releases.
- Floor pensionCheck whether legislation is made for the 23,552 TL floor.
Under Law No. 5510, pensions of SSK (4/a) and Bağ-Kur (4/b) retirees are increased in January and July by the CPI increase of the previous six months. The January 2027 raise will be determined by inflation in the July-December 2026 period.
Data released so far
- July: Monthly inflation of 1.78 percent.
- August: Monthly inflation of 1.84 percent (annual 31.51 percent).
- September: Monthly inflation of 1.84 percent.
- Three-month total: 5.57 percent for July-September. This forms the first three-month part of the raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur pensions.
Expectations for the six-month rate
Data for the remaining three months (October, November, December) has not been released, so the figures below are expectations, not final rates.
- Based on monthly expectations: The Central Bank Market Participants Survey expects 2.11 for October, 1.18 for November and 0.97 for December; with these, the six-month rate is calculated as 10.13 percent (Uzmanpara, 21 October 2026).
- Based on year-end expectation: The October survey puts the 2026 year-end CPI expectation at 29.63 percent; on that basis the SSK and Bağ-Kur raise is 10.08 percent.
- Scenarios: If year-end CPI is 28.0 percent, 8.70 percent; if 28.4 percent (the OVP forecast), 9.04 percent; if 29.6 percent, 10.06 percent.
Lowest pension and the floor pension
The lowest pension has been 23,552 TL since July 2026. According to the scenarios, the lowest SSK and Bağ-Kur pension would be 25,601 TL at 8.70 percent, 25,681 TL at 9.04 percent and 25,921 TL at 10.06 percent.
How are civil servant retiree (4/c) raises calculated?
- Collective agreement raise5 percent for January 2027 and 4 percent for July 2027 have been set.
- Inflation differenceIf six-month inflation exceeds 7 percent, the difference is added. Formula: 1.05 × (1 + six-month inflation) ÷ 1.07.
- Low inflationIf six-month inflation stays below 7 percent, civil servants and their retirees receive only 5 percent.
In the 8.70 percent scenario the civil servant retiree raise is reported as 6.67 percent, at 9.04 percent as 7.00 percent and at 10.06 percent as 8.01 percent.
Frequently asked questions
Is the January 2027 raise final?
No. Only the 5.57 percent accumulation for July-September is final. The final rate will be known after the December data.
When will the rate be clear?
When TÜİK announces December inflation in early January, the six-month rate will be final.
Is a raise paid even if inflation is zero?
Yes. Even if inflation is zero in the remaining months, SSK and Bağ-Kur pensions rise by at least 5.57 percent, and civil servant and retiree pay by 5 percent.
What will the lowest pension be?
It is 23,552 TL now. The new amount depends on the six-month rate and on whether legislation is passed for the floor pension.
Source: Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumu
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